Friday, October 31, 2008

Political Experts see Obama Landslide

Now call me crazy, but it is my studied opinion that children reflect their parent's attitudes very well. And the younger they are, the more accurately they reflect those attitudes. Pretty obvious really.

Therefore, when asked to vote in mock elections, their votes tend to run along the lines of their parents. They may not know why, but they almost always know who.

Students are very accurate with local elections, and prettty accurate with state elections, but one should remember - many voters do not have children in school.

This from the Hartford Courant:

As Kids See It, A Landslide Win For Obama

WASHINGTON — - The nation's children seem to be pulling for Sen. Barack Obama.

The Weekly Reader survey of U.S. students has correctly predicted the outcome in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections, and this time more than 125,000 participants — from kindergarten age to high school seniors — gave it to Obama with 54.7 percent of the vote. Sen. John McCain received 42.9 percent, and the "other" category pulled in 2.5 percent.

More significantly, Obama won 33 states and Washington, D.C. — a massive Electoral College victory."The kids have spoken," said Clara Colbert, a senior managing editor at Weekly Reader....
Obama won every grade level except high school Juniors, where McCain eeked out a narrow margin.

The survey has been conducted since 1956, with the only faulty prediction coming in 1992, when Bill Clinton defeated the first President Bush. (The ballot that year didn't include popular third candidate Ross Perot, who pulled votes from Bush in the general election.)

"Who says today's kids aren't smart?" said Tobe Berkovitz, associate dean of the communications college at Boston University. "Probably the 54 [percent] is going to be pretty accurate. These kids must be living on the blogs," he said, laughing. "Art Linkletter's thing was: 'Kids say the darndest things.'

In this case: Kids might be the darndest pundits."

For the Democratic Party, the kids' electoral college map has some surprises that are too good to be true - really. I mean, they're not likely to be true.

I doubt McCain will lose Mississippi, Texas, Arizona or Georgia, althought Georgia (and Arizona for that matter) seems close. Arkansas and Oklahoma? No way.

On the other hand, the students say Obama will lose Minnesota and New Hampshire. Sorry kids.

They say Virginia will go for Obama and North Carolina will go to McCain - and they're right.

If my math and my crystal ball are correct - I see it closer to 352 for Obama and 186 for McCain.

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