Friday, March 21, 2008

States’ Data Obscure How Few Finish High School

I don't know what the current data is...but a few years back when I served on the Fayette County School Equity Council, we saw data that showed half of the entering freshmen at a local high school never graduated. In 2007 that high school reported a graduation rate of 72%. This is either tremendous progress...or a big honkin' statistical lie. My money's on the latter.

This is a topic Dick Innes pounds on over at the Bluegrass Institute. While we may disagree about what should be done about it - we can agree that accounting for Kentucky's graduates and dropouts ought to be accurate.

Without a standard definition of dropout/graduation rate and accurate accounting we will always have stuff like this ...from the New York Times:

JACKSON, Miss. — When it comes to high school graduation rates, Mississippi keeps two sets of books.

One team of statisticians working at the state education headquarters here recently calculated the official graduation rate at a respectable 87 percent, which Mississippi reported to Washington. But in another office piled with computer printouts, a second team of number crunchers came up with a different rate: a more sobering 63 percent.

The state schools superintendent, Hank Bounds, says the lower rate is more accurate and uses it in a campaign to combat a dropout crisis.

“We were losing about 13,000 dropouts a year, but publishing reports that said we had graduation rate percentages in the mid-80s,” Mr. Bounds said. “Mathematically, that just doesn’t work out.”

Like Mississippi, many states use an inflated graduation rate for federal reporting requirements under the No Child Left Behind law and a different one at home. As a result, researchers say, federal figures obscure a dropout epidemic so severe that only about 70 percent of the one million American students who start ninth grade each year graduate four years later...

The multiple rates have many causes. Some states have long obscured their real numbers to avoid embarrassment. Others have only recently developed data-tracking systems that allow them to follow dropouts accurately.

The No Child law is also at fault. The law set ambitious goals, enforced through sanctions, to make every student proficient in math and reading. But it established no national school completion goals...

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