Wednesday, September 17, 2008

State says No Mid-Year Budget Cuts

If the state wanted to allay fears of a rumored mid-year budget cut taking the words "for now" out of the message would help. Leaving the possibility open does little to build confidence. But given the larger fiscal picture in Amereica right now...who can say anything with certainty?

But it's only a rumor - right up to the point where it isn't a rumor any more.

Between now and March when the final SEEK calculations are determined there is certain to be uncertainty.

This from Brad Hughes at KSBA:

Rumors about mid-year SEEK cut just that for now - rumors

Press reports that some school officials are worried about a possible mid-year reduction in SEEK funding are puzzling the Kentucky Department of Education’s top budget manager.

“We don’t know any basis for that rumor that’s there. I’ve asked our folks and no one has communicated that to anyone,” said Dr. Larry Stinson, associate commissioner of the department’s Office of District Support Services.

“Often, people go to a meeting and someone offers, ‘I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a shortfall. The economy’s down, state revenues are going to be down, and they are probably going to cut it.’ Folks take that to be reality or an informed opinion, and they’re going with it,” he said.

At least for the time being, the official word from Frankfort runs to the contrary. State Budget Director Mary Lassiter last week told legislators that state revenues were up in August. And in a meeting with Gov. Beshear’s budget staff that same week, “nothing was mentioned at all about there being any concerns (about SEEK),” Stinson said....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The current economy would give anyone the jitters. Plus, revenue could simultaneously be up, and not be up enough to meet the state's obligations.

For FY2008 (this fiscal/school year), the state budget requires 2.6% more revenue than FY 2007.

In July 2008, revenue was 1.9% higher than July 2007--bad news.

In August 2008, revenue was 7.6% higher than August 2007--good news.

For FY 2008 to date, revenue is 4.7% higher than this time last year--also good news.

All the good news is from one month. Given the recent economic news, that's not enough reason for districts, schools, or citizens to breathe easy.

May revenue and June revenue were down compared to the previous year,confirming again that we have one month, and only one month, of reassuring news.

That's reason to be very wary and very frugal until they see multiple months of revenue growing by 2.6% or more. Anything slower puts the overall budget at risk.

All the numbers above are in the (quite readable) monthly reports at www.osbd.ky.gov/publications/taxreceipts.htm.